Crunching the numbers: How many people have ever lived?

Adapted from an excerpt by Jonathan Good

What percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today? We know that sometime this year the world population will tick past 7 billion [1]. We know that there are a whole billion more of us than there were in 1999, as if a new China has appeared out of nowhere. The UN forecasts that the world population is expected to rise further, and further, to a whopping 10.1 billion in 2100 [2]. But what about the past? How many humans have walked on this beautiful planet of ours? And what fraction of people who have ever lived are alive today?

The evolution of humanity is a story of humble beginnings. Humans evolved on the plains of Africa an amazing 200,000 years ago [3] but the population for most of human history has been very, very small (for a flavor of the ‘early years’ see Werner Hertzog’s new movie [4]). Estimates suggest that it took 190,000 years for the population to reach 4 million (in a modern context that’s the number of people who ride the NYC subway each morning!). It wasn’t until the dawn of the industrial era in 1800 that our global population hit a seventh of what it is now, inching towards 1 billion. It’s rocketed ever since:

So what happened? Why did the world’s population start growing so quickly, so suddenly?

The world population is driven not only by more people having more children, but also the fact that we’re living longer. In fact, despite the fact that birth rates have been falling in recent decades, the population has continued to rise as those already on the planet lead longer, healthier lives, thanks to modern medicine and improved nutrition introduced in the centuries following 1800. World population growth is essentially birth rate minus death rate - thus, as life expectancy rises, death rates decrease, and the population will continue to rise.

So back to our original question. To estimate the number of people who have ever lived, we examined the average life span throughout human history in conjunction with world population levels. Until very recently life expectancy at birth hovered between 20 and 35 years, but in the past century it has risen to 67 years (it is highest in Monaco, at about 89 years, and lowest in Angola, where people live on average to be just 39 years old) [6].

All this means that in the 200,000 years since Homo Sapiens took her first steps across the African plains, just 57 billion people have ever lived. Astonishingly that means over 12% of all the people ever born are walking the planet at this very moment. Or to put it another way: one in eight people who have ever been born are alive today.

Footnotes

1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/14/population-explosion-seven-billion
2. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/world/04population.html
3. Smithsonian [http://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/human-evolution-timeline-interactive]
4. For an amazing 3D experience of this check out the new Werner Hertzog movie "Cave of Forgotten Dreams"
5. We use the UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs numbers where available, otherwise from McEvedy & Jones (1978). For a full set of world population estimates see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_estimates
6. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html
7. Data from 1950 on from Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, 2007. Earlier data is sourced from wikipedia and “Medics, monarchs and mortality, 1600-1800: Origins of the knowledge-driven health transition in Europe” by S. Ryan Johansson. Neolithic assumption is that one quarter of humans lived to 40, one quarter to 20 and one half died as infants.

14th World Business Dialogue in Cologne, Germany

I had the honor of being invited to attend, as a Venezuelan and University of Chicago representative, the 14th World Business Dialogue which took place on March of 2011 in Cologne, Germany.

Along with Pedro Sanchez de Lozada and Guimar Vaca Sittic, close friends and usual partners in trips, I was exposed to innovative ideas, complex issues, dynamic personalities and emerging markets from all over the world. We were passionate about the programming because it kept us motivated to dialogue about and understand complexity.

With Keynote Speaker and Joseph Ajao

The Forum dealt with complexity as its main topic, yet it touched upon all fields, regions and issues.

Speaking with 2nd Monzambique President at Go Africa! Panel

Watch video of question at:

http://www.vimeo.com/22737635

Last question of panel: 1:44:30

Exciting was not the conference on its own, but the diversity of its attendees, the excitement of a new city and its culture, and the development of our careers from that point-on.

Rihards Garacs, Marcello Schermer and David Akinin

At the Dialogue, I made lasting friendships, promoted www.rise-pak.com, met Ricardo Amador with whom I later won Third Place at the Loyola Business Case Competition pitching an idea about housing in Rio de Janeiro based on recycled paper, and culminated with a memorable road trip.

Pedro Sanchez de Lozada, David Akinin, Guimar Vaca Sittic

(View of Cologne)

Santiago Lizaso, Pedro Sanchez de Lozada and I rented a car and drove through Belgium, Netherlands and Germany for the following week, experiencing everything from Moules Frittes to the Berlin Wall.

In Brussels with the Road-Trip Crew

We must grasp the opportunities life puts in front of us. They shape us then, and much more later on as we reflect on our learnings, relationships, failures and achievement. L'chaim!

Paris

Paris,

Ciudad de miles de colores,
De profundos y eternos amores.
Capital mundial de la gastronomiía,
Punto G de cualquier panadería.
Tierra de exquisitos sabores,
De comidas con eternos sabores.
Reina de la arquitectura,
Coronada por su grandeza que perdura.

Counting on friends, when distance is a factor

My grandmothers, larga vida tengan, are two of my greatest inspirations and role models today. Each of their life stories and values have made of me, and of my passions, what I am today... Simi Levy de Akinin and Lucy Garzón de Benarroch; two of the most beautiful, intelligent, traditional, creative and unique women on earth.

Today, March 3rd is Simi's birthday. Mi Abuela, with whom I often talk, lives in Venezuela, away from most of the family (the majority of which resides in Miami, Florida). In less than a few hours, I managed to get two of my best friends in Venezuela, Moises Benzaquen and Kevin Hassan, to go buy some of the most beautiful flowers they could find, and personally deliver them to her in celebration of her 88th birthday! They did it, and in style. It's incredible, how despite distance and time past, our friendship was enough of a reason for them to lighten my grandmother's day...

I don't know many people who have the luck to have grandmothers like mine, but much less friends like them, who selflessly did not only an amazing kavod to our friendship, but a mitzvah in honoring my grandmother.

Recognizing that my life flipped 180 degrees after moving to America in 2003, not only did I gain a different and dependent perspective of family ties and unity, but I matured in a way that I wish I would have done in earlier years.

I sought to learn more about my origins, my ancestors- their traditions, careers, lifestyles, values... My grandfather, David Akinin Serfaty, had passed away a few months after my barmitzvah, a little over a month before we moved to the States. The amount of questions I would have asked him, conversations I dream of having years after his passing, saddened me, and made me realize how lucky others are who have the opportunity to, at my age, enjoy first-hand the memories and sage of their grandfathers. My other grandfather, Abraham Benarroch Bentata, with whom I had the opportunity to share a lot more, passed away in the summer of 2008, right before I moved away to Chicago in pursuit of a college education. Nevertheless, I still dream and have thirst for time, time lost and past, to learn more and share with him...

I don't know if I'm doing a good job, but I seek to learn and stay connected with my grandmothers every day... every day more. There's so much I want to know and share; I fear I'll have the same feeling of "I should have asked more" one day.

Economia 101: Circulación del Dinero

Un amigo compartió conmigo esta historia, y la quiero hacer llegar a todos ustedes, para dar una perspectiva sobre como la crisis económica se soluciona.

Es agosto, en una pequeña ciudad de la costa, en plena temporada; cae una lluvia torrencial y hace varios días que la ciudad parece desierta.

Hace rato que la crisis viene azotando este lugar, todos tienen deudas y viven a base de créditos.

Por fortuna, llega un ruso mafioso forrado de guita y entra en el único pequeño hotel del lugar. Pide una habitación. Pone un billete de 100 dólares en la mesa de la recepcionista y se va a ver las habitaciones.

El jefe del hotel agarra el billete y sale corriendo a pagar sus deudas con el carnicero.

Éste toma el billete y corre a pagar su deuda con el criador de cerdos.

A su turno éste sale corriendo para pagar lo que le debe al molino proveedor de alimentos para animales.

El dueño del molino toma el billete al vuelo y corre a liquidar su deuda con María, la prostituta a la que hace tiempo que no le paga. En tiempos de crisis, hasta ella ofrece servicios a crédito.

La prostituta con el billete en mano sale para el pequeño hotel donde había traído a sus clientes las últimas veces y que todavía no había pagado y le entrega el billete al dueño del hotel.

En este momento baja el ruso, que acaba de echar un vistazo a las habitaciones, dice que no le convence ninguna, toma el billete y se va.

Nadie ha ganado un centavo, pero ahora toda la ciudad vive sin deudas y mira el futuro con confianza!

MORALEJA: ¡¡¡SI EL DINERO CIRCULA SE ACABA LA CRISIS!!!

The Road to Innovative Social Entrepreneurship International Competition!

The humble roots of the RISE competition can be traced back to a shared desire to assist Pakistani flood relief efforts in an attempt to lessen the immediate and long-term devastations of one of the largest natural disasters in recent history.

I was introduced to Aliya Bagewadi by a mutual friend who was aware that we both had a joint desire to take action to not only bring light to the tragic aftermath of the Pakistani floods, but to give the young social entrepreneurs and leaders of tomorrow, found on college campuses around the world, an opportunity to help be part of the recovery process in the region.

My experience with social entrepreneurship and philanthropic efforts coupled with Aliya’s intense involvement in social justice initiatives and humanitarian efforts made for an ideal partnership to help making our idea-- an annual social entrepreneurship competition- a reality. After our initial meeting, we decided we would give the competition a go.

After meeting with several professors, entrepreneurs, NGO personnel in Pakistan and recruiting a passionate Executive Board consisting of University of Chicago undergraduates, we managed to organize a unique and comprehensive annual competition which we named the Road to Innovative Social Entrepreneurship- or, RISE. The board is made up of some of the greatest, most outstanding and dedicated individuals on our campus today... more info on the stars will be posted on our site later this week.

RISE operates under the overarching belief that every college student has the tremendous potential to use his/her skills and knowledge to benefit the greater good. It is only a matter of rising to the challenge.

We hear humanity calling. Will you help us answer it?

REGISTER YOUR TEAM NOW TO RECEIVE MORE INFORMATION at http://rise-pak.com/apply/

VISIT THE COMPETITION'S WEBSITE AT http://rise-pak.com


If you have any questions regarding the competition, contact me at david@akinin.com

Facebook, Twitter: tools for Social Revolutions.

After being wildly credited as the channel through which young rebels were able to organize the social uprising that recently put an end to Tunisia’s 23-year-old government, Facebook may be now facilitating another “spontaneous” social movement in Egypt.

Amid growing social and political turmoil in African countries like Algeria and Yemen, 85,000 people pledged on Facebook to attend a nationwide anti-government protest in Egypt today, January 25. The protest is obviously running on the “spirit” of the recent events in neighboring nation Tunisia. Activists from the 6th of April Youth Movement and Egypt’s Kifaya movement are behind this and other Facebook and Twitter invites.

Ironically, today’s protests will coincide with a national holiday that honors the police forces — instrumental in having kept President Muhammad Mubarak in office since 1981.

According to independent Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm, Egyptian activists are demanding, among many issues, the dismissal of the Minister of Interior, who is blamed for a myriad of human rights violations, and the limitation of presidency up to two terms.

For today’s protests in Egypt, the main Facebook page explicitly points to four meeting places around Cairo. Egyptian activist Khaled Kamel worries that this might have been a mistake: “Because of that, security is going to be prepared,” he told Time magazine. Moreover, mass demonstrations without prior authorization are banned in Egypt; anyone protesting today could be arrested.

Organizing social movements through Facebook makes it too easy for certain governments to track down protests, and thus be better prepared. And yet, it seems that if this protest happens at all, it will already be a huge success for the people of Egypt, and perhaps a wake-up call for authoritarian governments everywhere; social media can help give oppressed people a voice and a tool to come together.

What do you think is going to happen in Egypt? Will people show up? How instrumental do you think Facebook is in helping out with social protests?

Follow the updates on twitter!

--Credit for news: selftest.com

Studying in Paris for the Quarter!

Paris. Je suis là.
Je suis arrivé hier, et ne peut pas obtenir assez de votre air, vos sites, vos gens.
Nous avons trois mois pour connaître l'un à l'autre et tomber amoureux.
J'espère que vous êtes prêt, parce que je viens de finir le déballage.

The Power of Words in Times of War

To fight with words instead of weapons, to resist with truth instead of rocks is to instill civility in the emancipatory process and to question that of the oppressor.

TEDxUChicago - The Student Contest

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The TEDxUChicago conference is looking to showcase one student speaker from the Greater Chicago area! This is your opportunity to nominate yourself as a speaker and be chosen to showcase your work, ideas, inspirations and viewpoints on this year’s theme “Reinventing the Life of the Mind”.

Whether you are an undergraduate or graduate student, a researcher or a philosopher, a leader or a follower, you have something interesting to say—an idea worth spreading. This is your chance to enter and give an 18-minute (maximum TED talk time) speech to the world!

Timeline

• Competition Kickoff

  On November 22nd any student will be able to submit their proposal on our website: tedxuchicago.com/contest

• Proposal Submission Deadline

  Register your proposal by January 5, 2011 at 11:59pm Submit proposal here.

• Q&A As questions come in, we will post them here for other participants to read. In the meantime if you have any questions please submit them toakinin@tedxuchicago.com.

• Proposal Feedback Delivered and Finalists AnnouncedAll speakers will receive comprehensive feedback on their proposal. Five finalists will be announced to present in the final round on March 15th 2011.

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  Final Round Each person will present to a panel of industry experts from business, technology and public and social service sectors / professors, entrepreneurs. Finalists will be given more in-depth information as they’re chosen.

Questions?

Contact: David Akinin, akinin@tedxuchicago.com